Ohio Senate: GOP’s Portman Still Holds Slim Lead

Monday, February 08, 2010

Republican Rob Portman still has narrow leads over his two chief Democratic opponents for the seat being vacated by GOP Senator George Voinovich in Ohio.

A new Rasmussen Reports survey of likely voters in Ohio finds the leading Republican Senate hopeful with four-point margins over both Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner. But there’s been little movement in the numbers from a month ago.

Portman now posts a 43% to 39% lead over Fisher. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate, given that match-up, and 13% are undecided. Last month, Portman led Fisher 44% to 37%.

Against Brunner, Portman leads 42% to 38%. Five percent (5%) again like another candidate, and 15% are undecided. In January, Portman was ahead of Brunner 43% to 40%.

In December, Portman was in a virtual tie with Fisher 38% to 36% and was ahead of Brunner 40% to 33%. In September, the candidates were neck-and-neck.

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Forty-five percent (45%) of voters in Ohio think it is possible to balance the federal budget without raising taxes, but 36% disagree. Fifty-one percent (51%) favor an across-the-board tax cut for all Americans, but 32% are opposed. That’s a bit more supportive of tax cuts than the national average.

Fifty-four percent (54%) also think cutting taxes is a better way to create jobs than increasing government spending. Only 17% see increased spending as a better job-creator. Those figures are similar to the national average.

More optimistic than voters nationally, 50% in Ohio say the United States and its allies are winning the war on terror. Just 19% say the terrorists are winning.

Still, only 43% believe the United States is safer today than it was before the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, and nearly as many (39%) disagree.

When it comes to important national issues, 70% of Ohio voters trust the judgment of the American people more than that of the nation’s political leaders. Fifteen percent (15%) trust the judgment of the political leaders more.

Seventy-two percent (72%) believe the federal government has become a special interest group, and 70% think government and big business often work together to hurt consumers and investors.

In Ohio, as is typically the case around the country, the Republican candidate runs stronger among male voters while the Democrats carry female voters. In both match-ups, Portman wins voters not affiliated with either major party by 18 points.

The numbers in the Buckeye State suggest that none of the candidates has really fired voters’ enthusiasm yet. Fisher and Brunner, like many Democratic candidates nationwide, also appear to be suffering from voter unhappiness with the state of the economy and fallout from the Congressional health care debate.

Barack Obama carried Ohio, a key swing state in recent years, over John McCain by a 51% to 47% margin in November 2008, and 49% of Ohio voters approve of the job President Obama is doing. Fifty-one percent (51%) disapprove of the president’s performance. But noticeably while 29% strongly approve of Obama’s performance, 41% strongly disapprove. This is roughly in line with the president’s job approval ratings in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll as the bounce he received from his state of the union speech appears to fade.

Forty percent (40%) of Ohio voters now rate their personal finances as good or excellent, while 19% say they are poor. But just 16% say their finances are getting better. Nearly half the state’s voters (48%) say their personal finances are getting worse.

Thirteen percent (13%) have a very favorable opinion of Portman, a former congressman who also served as the director of the Office of Management and Budget and the U.S. Trade Representative under President George W. Bush. Only five percent (5%) have a very unfavorable view of him, but one-in-three voters (32%) don’t know enough about Portman to venture even a soft favorable or unfavorable opinion.

Fisher is viewed very favorably by 11% and very unfavorably by 13%.

Brunner’s very favorables total 18%, and her very unfavorables are 14%.

At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with a strong opinion more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

Both parties will pick their Senate nominees in May 4 primaries.

Democratic Senate incumbents who currently trail their challengers include Harry Reid in Nevada, Michael Bennet in Colorado, Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas and Arlen Specter in Pennsylvania. Democrats Barbara Boxer from California, Evan Bayh of Indiana and Russ Feingold of Wisconsin find themselves in more competitive races than usual.

Republicans lead open-seat Senate races in Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire and North Dakota.

In 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected nationally that Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama won 53% to 46%. Four years earlier, Rasmussen Reports projected the national vote totals for both George W. Bush and John Kerry within half-a-percentage-point.

In Ohio, Rasmussen Reports Obama and McCain tied at 49% in a race Obama won 51% to 47%. In 2004, Rasmussen polling showed George W. Bush defeating John Kerry in Ohio by a 50% to 46% margin. Bush won 51% to 49%.

In the 2006 Ohio race for U.S. Senate, Rasmussen polling showed Sherrod Brown beating Mike DeWine by eleven points, 54% to 43%. Brown won by twelve, 56% to 44%. In the 2006 race for Governor, Rasmussen polling showed Ted Strickland leading Ken Blackwell by twenty-five points, 59% to 34%. Strickland won by twenty-three, 60% to 37%.

See all Rasmussen Reports 2008 state results for president, Senate and governor. See 2006 results for Senate and governor. See 2004 state results for president.

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